Thursday, October 15, 2009

Up 51.56% so far in 2009

Another great quarter just came to an end. Parnassah year to date is up 51.56%, and still largely out performing the S&P 500.

Now is time to look at your financial situation and determine how you can get into this market. If you are interested in investing with Parnassah please contact Zac, Julian or myself.

If you want a PDF version of the report below email us at parnassah-investments@googlegroups.com

(Click the picture below for a full size view of the one pager report)

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Are Green Shoots Really That Green?

Seems like the market is heading in just one direction. Earnings continue to beat estimates, housing and jobs may have actually bottomed. At least this is the picture you get from watching CNBC.

I'd like to present a slightly less rosy view. Sure the earnings season so far has beat estimates, but a one legged leprechaun could have jumped over that lowered hurdle. Check out this article on MSN from Bill Fleckenstein on Intel's recent earnings numbers. He explains why they aren't exactly all they're cracked up to be. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/do-intels-numbers-spell-recovery.aspx

While jobs may have bottomed I sure don't expect jobs to be added for quite some time.

Instead you should be betting on three outcomes.
1) The recovery will be slow at best
2) This V shaped bounce in the market will correct itself
3) Interest rates can't stay this low forever

These are three situations Parnassah is positioning itself for over the next few months.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Giant First Half - Parnassah Investments Beats the S&P 500 by 27.85%

Those that left their money at work this past quarter were rewarded very well with a market bounce after March 9th. And if you had some cash sitting on the sidelines going into the lows (which we did) then you probably fared even better.

The 2nd quarter rally resulted in earnings this quarter even better than Q1 2009. Parnassah Investments (PI) thru the first half of 2009 is out performing the S&P 500 by 27.58%. PIs' investments as a whole are up 31.41%, since the first of the year. Read through the Q2 report, posted below by clicking on the photo for further information and results from the quarter.

Today, as I'm writing this the S&P is down below 900 points, which to us here at Parnassah signals another buying opportunity. Find your stocks and identify your entry points, or better yet give us a call and leave it to the professionals.

(Click the picture below for a full size view of the one pager report)

Sunday, July 5, 2009

The Case for Shorting

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124657282666888819.html#mod=BOL_hpp_highlight

Cover of Barron's on investment research firm Short Alert. Check it out!

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Link to Goldman Article in Rolling Stone

The Rolling Stone article by Matt Taibbi

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine

Some quotes from the article:

"From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they're about to do it again"

"The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

“It’s a gangster state, running on gangster economics, and even prices can’t be trusted anymore; there are hidden taxes in every buck you pay. And maybe we can’t stop it, but at least we know where it’s all going.”

Also, more Goldman bashing in this article after their 3.44 billion Q2 earnings release and estimated 770k compensation per employee this year:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/opinion/17krugman.html?em

"The bottom line is that Goldman’s blowout quarter is good news for Goldman and the people who work there. It’s good news for financial superstars in general, whose paychecks are rapidly climbing back to precrisis levels. But it’s bad news for almost everyone else."

"Other banks invested heavily in the same toxic waste they were selling to the public at large. Goldman, famously, made a lot of money selling securities backed by subprime mortgages — then made a lot more money by selling mortgage-backed securities short, just before their value crashed. All of this was perfectly legal, but the net effect was that Goldman made profits by playing the rest of us for suckers."

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Government (Goldman) Sachs

Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone magazine wrote a scathing article about Goldman Sachs in the newest issue. Taibbi cites Goldman's influence in politics and it's contribution to the internet bubble, housing crisis, gas prices, and the bailout. Disclosure we do own stock in Goldman, and just because a company isn't ethical doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in them. The stock market is about making money not investing ethically. I will try to link if the article is posted online. Here are some of the highlights:

*IPO's were limited to companies 5 years in existence and 3 years of consistent profitability before the internet bubble when investment banks began to let companies that might never earn a profit IPO.
*During the internet bubble they engaged in "laddering" (selling IPO's to investors who promise to buy more at a higher price) and "spinning" (undervaluing IPO's and selling to company executives in exchange for future underwriting business) and earning billions in IPO fees and feeding the bubble.
*Before the housing bust homeowners had to have 10 percent down payment, steady income, and good credit rating. After the internet bubble, Goldman's next bubble was the housing market thanks to Rick Rubin (former Goldman exec and then treasury secretary)who relaxed underwriting standards. The bank began selling CDO's of repackaged mortgages knowing they would fail but still they got high credit ratings because they packaged the mortgages together.
*Then they bought credit default swaps from AIG, which had almost no regulation because of the 2000 Commodity Futures Market Act, and taking short positions against the same investments it was selling. The government would then have to bailout AIG (Hank Paulsen the treasury secretary at the time was also a former Goldman exec) to repay it 13 billion in credit default swap payments owed.
*Next when investors started to worry about the fall of the dollar and the mortgage market Goldman Sachs and the other investment banks moved to the physical commodity markets. Ever since the Depression commodity markets had been designed to help farmers prevent price uncertainty and act as a middleman with traditional speculators.
*In 1991 Goldman Sachs was given an exemption to trade in the commodities market. By 2008, 75% of the activity was speculative. This would not be a problem if speculation was long and short, but the majority of commodity speculation is "long only" which drives up the price of the commodity. At the same time, Goldman Sachs was cheerleading rising oil prices by putting out reports that oil would go higher. *The rise of oil prices also increased food prices that the average person has to pay. While Goldman employees earned on average over $600,000 in bonuses.
*Goldman received 10 billion in TARP funds of taxpayer money plus by changing to a bank holding company they can borrow at discount window of the Federal reserve which is undisclosed. Goldman also benefited from one of it's major rivals Lehman Brothers collapse but AIG was bailed out who owed Goldman Sachs $13 billion.
*Goldman switched to a year end calendar and wrote off the bookss $1.3 billion in losses in December which were not reported because of the switch in calendar. Then it reported $1.8 billion profit in first quarter 2009 mostly due to the taxpayer money from the bailout of AIG. In that first quarter Goldman reported employee compensation and bonuses of $4.7 billion. It also raised $5 billion by issuing new shares of stock after releasing the first quarter results. Essentially borrowing money to pay its employees.
*Despite making a profit of $2 billion in 2008, Goldman only paid $14 million in income tax due to shipping their revenues offshore. In comparison, Goldman paid its CEO in 2008 $43 million.
*What is the next bubble Goldman will exploit? Taibbi's article says it's the new carbon credit market. Goldman employees are a major contributor to the Obama campaign and Goldman alumns are in the Obama administration. The carbon credit market will require companies with greater carbon emissions to buy credits from companies who do not use all their credits and will be very lucrative. The volume of this market would be upward of a trillion of dollars annually and the credits will have a government mandate increase in price every year (unlike commodities it's already rigged in advance). The government would pay Goldman to collect the money and the money would be gauranteed.
*Goldman already has investments in Horizon Wind Energy, BP Solar, Changing World Technologies, and a 10 percent stake in Chicago Climate Exchange, where the carbon credits will be traded, and a minority stake in Blue Source LLC, a company that sells carbon credits of the type that will be in great demand if the bill passes.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Some Tried and True Wisdom for the Ages

Book Value and Value Investing are terms you hear all of the time out there in the investment world. Where do they come from and how are successful people using them is always a question of interest?
We here at Parnassah Investments (PI) use things like book value as one resource for evaluating stocks. One word of caution though is not to rely on book value alone. Over the years I’ve watched many stocks “Book Value” erode away. What I’ve found here is a very good article on how book value is used to look at companies in strong sectors. Don’t take this and chase the latest and greatest high flying gold stock, because you will get burned.

Below is a great article I came across taking about just this.

What to Do Now? How About Some Wisdom From the Past!

Some of you are still wondering what to do now that the market has crashed and has started a rebound. Hopefully this is not a temporary rebound as many think it is. Have you ever wondered what the "Wise Old Men" of investing are doing? Smart Money Magazine interviewed investment gurus who had been around for several recessions and got their take on the kinds of stocks to buy. They like solid stocks of companies with good businesses. Stocks like Comcast (CMSCA), Williams COS. (WMB), NV Energy (NVE), or Mitsubishi Corp. (MSBHY), Dell (DELL). Read on for the advice of these long term survivors in the market.

In the mid-1980s, when she was a business student at Dartmouth , Sarah Ketterer enjoyed reading books from the 1930s about how to value stocks. How neat, she thought, to analyze a business based on its “net current asset value,” the amount of money a firm would fetch when it was liquidated. But by the time Ketterer was investing professionally, using that and similar metrics was about as popular as disco or bell-bottom jeans.

Only now Ketterer is embracing those decades-old formulas, not just for nostalgia but also because they’re back in style – and turning up more high-quality stocks than they have in years. In fact, Causeway Capital Management, the $9 billion asset-management firm she leads, recently bought Dell and Disney after applying those strategies. These days, Ketterer says, the old-school approaches are identifying “not crummy businesses but really good ones.”

Who would have thought that a Depression-era investing style could be in vogue in 2009? But a growing group of investors are digging out their old textbooks and taking refresher courses in valuing companies based on margin of safety, current asset value and a slew of other concepts perfected 75 years ago. The market’s 16-month slide, while devastating to many people’s net worth, has created the types of bargains that drew many pros to investing in the first place—good businesses that can survive the crisis but are trading as if they’re dead. “They are so cheap, you can be wrong and still be okay,” says long-time value investor Wally Weitz, manager of the Omaha-based Weitz Funds. These strategies made millionaires out of some of their disciples coming out of the Depression, and some investing pros think history will repeat itself.

These retro ideas are mostly attributed to legendary investor Benjamin Graham. After taking a beating in the 1929 stock market crash and again in 1932, Graham wanted to tweak his investing style to make money over the long run while taking a lot less risk. Graham, with the help of coauthor David Dodd, wrote down their principles in the 1934 book Security Analysis, a tome now considered a stock-picking bible by man investors, including Warren Buffett, who studied under Graham. The duo’s theories boil down to a simple goal: An investor should aim to buy $1 worth of company for a lot less than $1.

However, by the1980s, looking for stocks that traded for less than “book value,” or the value of the firm’s assets, seemed, well, old-fashioned. Few U.S stocks were valued as cheaply as the ones Graham found back in the 1930s. And by the time Ketterer began her investing career in 1990, most of the American firms the techniques would identify were terrible businesses.

But some pros say the stock market wipeout has indiscriminately crushed companies of all kinds, and they are finding more Graham-esque stocks than at any time since the 1970s. Sure, 21st-century investors have applied some tweaks to the old theories, but high-quality businesses such as Comcast are now trading at below book value, a staple metric of old-fashioned value investing. “That gives you courage when you are looking at some wormy type of situations,” says John Spears, co-manager of the Tweedy, Browne Value fund.

To be sure, many investors, including Buffett, have been tripped up by this perplexing market. Last fall and winter, seemingly underpriced stocks fell even further; since then, the ups and downs of bear-market rallies have made it even harder to judge stocks’ values. But for the first time in decades, Graham-style investing is turning up some great companies that could also be great long-term investments.

Smart Money
May, 2009
PP. 82-84

For a great summary analysis of these companies surf over to the following site and read the articles: http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/Back-to-The-Future-Investing/